Date: June 22, 2026 Source: Matrix Multiple Listing Service Report by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.

26Q2 National Economic Overview

The U.S. economy continues to expand, but growth has clearly moderated and the underlying trend has become more uneven. Consumer spending has held up, corporate earnings are strong, and financial markets continue to perform well, leaving little evidence that a recession is imminent. However, labor markets are softening, real income growth has stalled, and business uncertainty weighs on investment decisions. Rather than overheating, the economy increasingly appears to be settling into a period of trend to mildly below-trend growth.

The policy debate continues to swing between inflation and labor markets and what each implies for Fed policy. Following speculation that new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh would adopt a more aggressive stance against inflation, financial markets briefly began pricing in the possibility of higher interest rates. That concern appears increasingly misplaced. Wage growth has slowed to roughly 3.5%, equal to the current inflation rate, while productivity growth has accelerated to a two-decade high, keeping unit labor costs exceptionally low. Home prices, which represent roughly one-third of the Consumer Price Index, are essentially flat in real terms, and construction spending has weakened. These are not the ingredients typically associated with persistent inflationary pressure.

Instead, the economy shows mounting evidence of gradual cooling. Payroll growth is reflective of low population growth and recent changes in immigration policy. Recent employment gains have been revised downward, and the labor force participation rate continues to decline. Total hours worked has flatlined, quit rates have fallen to levels not seen outside the pandemic in nearly a decade, and real disposable income had been essentially flat for more than a year before slipping modestly in recent months. None of these indicators point to an economy in recession, but collectively they suggest households are becoming more cautious, and the labor market is no longer providing the same level of support it did just a year ago.
Despite these headwinds, strengths remain. Equity markets have performed well, with superb corporate earnings leading the way, but the market has begun to shift. Rather than rewarding companies promising future AI-driven profits, investors have increasingly favored the semiconductor, memory, and infrastructure firms already benefiting from today’s unprecedented capital spending on artificial intelligence. That shift suggests investors are becoming more disciplined, emphasizing realized earnings over speculative future returns. For wealth-driven markets, that distinction matters because sustained gains in financial assets continue to support high-end discretionary spending and luxury real estate demand.

Another important source of support comes from household wealth. During 2025 alone, approximately 440,000 Americans became millionaires, bringing the total to roughly 23.6 million, nearly one in ten adults. Because higher-income households account for a disproportionate share of discretionary spending, this expanding concentration of wealth supports travel, luxury goods, financial markets, and real estate, an important tailwind for high-end resort markets.

The greatest uncertainty facing the economy remains policy rather than fundamentals. Tariffs, evolving trade negotiations, and changing immigration policies have created uncertainty for businesses, weighing on long-term investment decisions. As the Iran conflict lingers, energy and global uncertainty weigh on growth. None of these forces are likely to derail the expansion on their own, but together they contribute to slower hiring, delayed capital spending, and a marginally more cautious general business environment.

Overall, the economy appears to be moving from post-pandemic expansion toward a more mature phase of the business cycle. Growth continues, inflation pressures are gradually easing, and the labor market is cooling without breaking. While risks remain, particularly around policy and global events, the evidence increasingly suggests a remarkably resilient economy. Dr. Eisenberg says: “The economy has slowed, but wealth creation hasn’t. As long as financial markets continue generating wealth, demand for high-end assets, including luxury real estate, should remain well supported.”

26Q2 National Housing Overview

The national housing market continues to be shaped by the same forces that have defined it for the past few years, but the near-term outlook has come into sharper focus. High home prices still suppress demand, mortgage rates remain stubbornly elevated, and transaction activity is historically weak. Even so, the inventory growth that many expected to put meaningful downward pressure on home prices has largely stalled. Instead of evolving toward a buyers’ market characterized by falling prices, the housing market appears to be settling into a prolonged period of weak sales, modest price appreciation, and limited mobility.

Mortgage rates remain the biggest obstacle. At roughly 6½%, borrowing costs weigh heavily on affordability, particularly when combined with home prices that keep setting new record highs. The situation has become even more challenging as inflation has recently outpaced wage growth, reducing real household purchasing power. Immigration has also slowed, modestly reducing one source of housing demand, as does weakening household formation. Together, these forces are limiting both first-time buyers and existing homeowners looking to move, keeping transaction volumes well below historical norms.

Inventory has increased from the extraordinary lows reached during the pandemic, but it is no longer rising at the pace many analysts anticipated earlier this year. Months of supply remains below the level typically associated with declining nominal home prices, suggesting that broad-based price corrections remain unlikely. Instead, national home price appreciation has slowed to roughly 1% annually, where it’s likely to remain for the near term. Absent a meaningful increase in inventory, substantial price declines appear unlikely. While this constrains overall activity, many luxury markets continue to be driven more by the availability of premier properties than by financing costs.

Conditions also differ considerably between the existing home and new-home markets. Existing homeowners remain reluctant to give up historically low mortgage rates, continuing to reinforce the lock-in effect that has constrained supply for several years. Builders face a much more difficult environment. New home sales have weakened noticeably, inventories of completed homes have climbed to their highest levels since the Housing Bust, and builders have responded by reducing housing starts, offering incentives, and scaling back future construction. While this adjustment should eventually help rebalance supply of new homes, it is also likely to limit future inventory growth.

Regionally, performance also diverges. Markets across much of the South and West, where prices surged the most during the pandemic, remain under greater pressure from high home prices and elevated inventory. By comparison, many markets in the Midwest and Northeast have held up better, benefiting from relatively less dramatic price appreciation during the boom years. Even so, these stronger regions represent a much smaller share of the national housing market and have not been enough to offset broader weakness.

Credit quality remains a relative bright spot. Mortgage delinquency rates have drifted modestly higher over the past year but remain exceptionally low by historical standards and are slowly returning to pre-pandemic norms. That reflects the generally strong financial position of today’s homeowners and suggests that widespread financial distress remains unlikely. Housing may be sluggish, but it does not show the kinds of credit deterioration typically associated with a broader downturn.

These national trends provide important context, but resort markets such as Breckenridge follow an entirely different cycle, where limited supply and wealth creation exert a greater influence on pricing and activity than mortgage rates alone. As Dr. Eisenberg notes: “National housing is still waiting for a catalyst. Mortgage rates remain too high to unlock the traditional housing market, but that’s far less true in luxury markets where wealth and wealth appreciation, not financing, is the primary driver of demand.”

26Q2 Colorado Housing Market

Colorado’s economy continues to expand, but it has clearly entered a more mature phase of the business cycle. State GDP reached approximately $606.1 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up from $572.1 billion a year earlier, representing growth of more than 5%. While that remains a healthy pace, it is well below the extraordinary gains of the pandemic recovery and reflects an economy settling into more sustainable growth.

The labor market remains fundamentally healthy and has outperformed the nation as a whole. Colorado’s unemployment rate stood at 3.9% in May (down from 4.1% a year ago), below the national average and indicative of continued labor market strength. Hiring has moderated, and employers are finding it somewhat easier to attract workers than during the exceptionally tight labor markets of the past several years. Resort communities, however, operate under very different labor market dynamics. Where their labor is heavily influenced by the seasonal nature of tourism and should not be interpreted as labor market weakness. Employment fluctuates significantly throughout the year as seasonal workers enter and leave the labor force, making local unemployment rates considerably more volatile than statewide averages.

Affordability has emerged as the state’s defining economic challenge, influencing where people choose to live, work, and invest, and is increasingly shaping Colorado’s housing market. Rising home prices and the broader cost of living are influencing migration patterns, workforce availability, and housing demand, while builders continue to face elevated construction costs and financing challenges that limit the pace of new development.

Colorado’s housing market is following a similar path to the national market. Rather than weakening, it is normalizing after several years of extraordinary appreciation. Price growth has slowed, buyers have become more patient, and homes are taking longer to sell, creating a healthier balance between buyers and sellers. Increasingly, Colorado is becoming a collection of distinct housing markets. Many Front Range communities are feeling the effects of affordability constraints and softer demand, while resort markets in the mountains continue to be driven primarily by wealth creation, lifestyle demand, and a chronically limited supply of developable land.

For the first half of 2026, statewide single-family prices softened modestly, with the median price declining 0.9% year-over-year to $580,000 and the average price falling 2.5% to $741,780. Condo and townhome prices also moderated, with the median down 1.2% to $405,000, while the average price edged up 0.2% to $572,353. Closed sales remained relatively stable at 42,614, while new listings declined 2.1%. Inventory stands at 4.6 months of supply, approaching a balanced market but still below the level typically associated with meaningful price declines.

Homes are taking longer to sell, with average days on market increasing to 66, while sellers continue receiving a healthy 98.6% of original list price. Buyers have gained somewhat more negotiating leverage, but the market remains supported by Colorado’s long-term housing shortage and limited new construction. Mortgage rates in the mid-6% range continue to weigh on affordability, keeping transaction activity below historical norms, yet they have not fundamentally altered the state’s long-term housing outlook.

Dr. Eisenberg notes, “Colorado’s housing market isn’t retreating; it’s recalibrating. Buyers have more choices, sellers have to be more realistic, and that’s producing a slower market—not a weaker one.”